EMC Gestion de Fortune SA a développé, au fil des années, un modèle d’appréhension du risque sur le marché américain des actions baptisé : « Market pulse ». L’approche combine la finance comportementale, l’analyse des forces internes régissant l’offre et la demande, l’étude des cycles et des mouvements de prix. Ce modèle permet d’évaluer en permanence le risque global du marché sur une échelle de 0 à 100.
Wednesday 2nd April 2025 (S&P 500 5670.97 + 37,90)
Finally tariffs have been announced and a wave of protectionism is under way in a context of a global economy that has never been in the past so integrated. Without elaborating on the macro economics theory, the consequences are crystal clear: lower growth across the board, less competitiveness, higher prices for consumers and one loser: the USA that are going to stand alone in front of the building of new trade alliances all over the world and finally a clear winner: China. It will take time for the dust to settle down and it will lead, in our opinion, to much lower PE’s for many stocks in this context of uncertainty.
During the trading session, we observed bargain hunting as some investors and options traders built positions to play the upside of the market, betting that tariffs won’t be so onerous.
Private investors are depressed as the bull to bear ratio lies at 0,3 a very low ratio by historic measures.
Very short-term oscillator: negative
Short-term oscillator: negative
RVI trend: negative
Trend short-term (5 days): down
Trend mid-term (8 days): down
Differential of trend: down
Risk profile: 44 (scale of 1 (low risk) to 100 (high risk))
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