EMC Gestion de Fortune SA a développé, au fil des années, un modèle d’appréhension du risque sur le marché américain des actions baptisé : « Market pulse ». L’approche combine la finance comportementale, l’analyse des forces internes régissant l’offre et la demande, l’étude des cycles et des mouvements de prix. Ce modèle permet d’évaluer en permanence le risque global du marché sur une échelle de 0 à 100.
Thursday 16th October 2025 (S&P 500 6629.07 -41.99)
For the time being, the S&P 500 hasn’t broken its 40 days moving average but pre-market futures may indicate it may well happen today. Some pieces of the credit market are flashing red flags as observed yesterday by the selloff of regional banks, a warning sign that the US economy is starting to suffer. This is confirmed by the behavior of the T-bond market whose yields are dropping quickly, the 10 years US T-bond is now trading under 4 %. The Dow Jones utilities index is also pointing out to a slowing economy and lower interest rates.
In this context, we observed some selling pressure in the market as measured by our buying/selling index, breadth closed on a weak note: 1400 stocks advanced, 2892 declined. Options traders have become less enthusiastic as measured by put/call ratios. The Vix jumped to 25, the highest level for months as some kind of fear is starting to creep in. Nevertheless, the exposure index of active professional porfolios mangares barely moved from one week to the other and lies at 85 on a scale of 0 to 100,
Very short-term oscillator: negative
Short-term oscillator: negative
RVI trend: negative
Trend short-term (5 days): down
Trend mid-term (8 days): down
Differential of trend: down
Risk profile: 59 (scale of 1 (low risk) to 100 (high risk))
Have a nice day!
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