EMC Gestion de Fortune SA a développé, au fil des années, un modèle d’appréhension du risque sur le marché américain des actions baptisé : « Market pulse ». L’approche combine la finance comportementale, l’analyse des forces internes régissant l’offre et la demande, l’étude des cycles et des mouvements de prix. Ce modèle permet d’évaluer en permanence le risque global du marché sur une échelle de 0 à 100.
Wednesday 23rd April 2025 (S&P 500 5375.86 + 88,10)
The stock market opened with a gap on the upside before the rally fizzled out as, apparently, hedge funds managers had to cover their shorts. Nevertheless, breadth closed on a strong note: 3208 stocks advanced compared to 968 that settled down. The Tick index settled at 1015, the Vix at 28,95 and the Skew index at 127, one of the lowest readings of the last two years. There are some discrepancies among various sentiment indicators like put/call ratios, the SKEW index and the weekly survey among private investors as this category of investors is very bearish as measured by the bull to bear ratio that stands at 39, a very low percentage by historical standards. There is only one certitude in this environment: volatility is going to stay.
Very short-term oscillator: neutral
Short-term oscillator: negative
RVI trend: negative
Trend short-term (5 days): down
Trend mid-term (8 days): down
Differential of trend: down
Risk profile: 38 (scale of 1 (low risk) to 100 (high risk))
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