EMC Gestion de Fortune SA a développé, au fil des années, un modèle d’appréhension du risque sur le marché américain des actions baptisé : « Market pulse ». L’approche combine la finance comportementale, l’analyse des forces internes régissant l’offre et la demande, l’étude des cycles et des mouvements de prix. Ce modèle permet d’évaluer en permanence le risque global du marché sur une échelle de 0 à 100.
Tuesday 31st March 2025 (S&P 500 6528.52 + 184,80)
The stock market rallied as, in our opinion, short positions initiated lately by aggressive investors had to be covered in panic, this is confirmed by our capitulation index that reached an extreme. This is typical of counter trend rally in a bear market that may confuse investors along the way. The 6600 level may become a strong resistance as falling 40 days and 200 days moving averages are crossing down. 3652 stocks advanced on the NYSE 999 declined, relieving some of the selling pressure the stock market incurred recently. The Vix index fell swiftly to 25, options trading closed neutral to cautious, the SKEW index at 145, a level we considered too high in these circumstances and the daily trading sentiment index jumped to settled at 44, a neutral reading.
Very short-term oscillator: negative
Short-term oscillator: negative
RVI trend: negative
Trend short-term (5 days): down
Trend mid-term (8 days): down
Differential of trend: down
Risk profile index: 36 (scale of 1 (low risk) to 100 (high risk))
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NEXT UPDATE: 8TH April 2026
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