EMC Gestion de Fortune SA a développé, au fil des années, un modèle d’appréhension du risque sur le marché américain des actions baptisé : « Market pulse ». L’approche combine la finance comportementale, l’analyse des forces internes régissant l’offre et la demande, l’étude des cycles et des mouvements de prix. Ce modèle permet d’évaluer en permanence le risque global du marché sur une échelle de 0 à 100.
Tuesday 17th December 2024 (S&P 500 6050.61 -23,47)
The S&P 500 has been tracing out a lateral consolidation for the last two weeks. End of the year window dressing is still under way as portfolios managers are piling up on the winners of the year and dumping out the losers. This is confirmed by the observation of various indicators: our buying/selling index and our fear/greed index are overbought. On the other hand, breadth is very weak:1100 stocks advanced on the NYSE, 3024 declined; on the Nasdaq: 1567 up 2797 down. Nevertheless, options traders are buying calls and are very bullish as the SKEW index closed at 173, maybe it’s time to adopt a contrarian attitude. The cumulative advance/decline lines on the Nasdaq and on the NYSE are plunging and the list of stocks hitting fresh new lows is expanding. The Fed may have to lower massively interest rates next year and inject a lot of money into the system to avoid a sustained recession. Let’s observe today’s Fed announcement.
Very short-term oscillator: negative
Short-term oscillator: negative
RVI trend: negative
Trend short-term (5 days): down
Trend mid-term (8 days): down
Differential of trend: up
Risk profile: 75 (scale of 1 (low risk) to 100 (high risk))
Have a nice day!
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