S&P 500 “Market pulse” analysis

EMC Gestion de Fortune SA a développé, au fil des années, un modèle d’appréhension du risque sur le marché américain des actions baptisé : « Market pulse ». L’approche combine la finance comportementale, l’analyse des forces internes régissant l’offre et la demande, l’étude des cycles et des mouvements de prix. Ce modèle permet d’évaluer en permanence le risque global du marché sur une échelle de 0 à 100.

Friday 8th March 2024 (S&P 500 5123.6 -33.67)

The stock market lost some ground as some flagships stocks in the tech sector reversed course. Nevertheless, breadth settled positive on the NYSE as 2214 stocks advanced compared to 1754 that settled down. The cumulative advance/decline line on the Nasdaq continues to stagnate whereas on the NYSE it is clearly stronger. Options trading closed neutral and our main indicators continue to hover around their respective overbought area. At this stage of the recent bull market, a correction/consolidation would be more than welcomed.

The monetary aggregates M1, M2, M3 released for the period closed at the end of January point out to a stagnation of these data, indicating a weak inflow of liquidities into the system from the Fed and a weak demand for credit from corporations and individuals, not a very good sign.

Very short-term oscillator: negative

Short-term oscillator: negative

RVI trend: positive

Trend short term (5 days): up

Trend mid term (8 days): up

Differential of trend: up

Risk profile: 79 (scale of 1 (low risk) to 100 (high risk))

Have a nice day!