EMC Gestion de Fortune SA a développé, au fil des années, un modèle d’appréhension du risque sur le marché américain des actions baptisé : « Market pulse ». L’approche combine la finance comportementale, l’analyse des forces internes régissant l’offre et la demande, l’étude des cycles et des mouvements de prix. Ce modèle permet d’évaluer en permanence le risque global du marché sur une échelle de 0 à 100.
Friday 5th May 2023 (S&P 500 4136.2 + 75.03)
Erratic prices moves continue to confuse market participants as the economy is resilient despite the swift increase of interest rates and the turmoil in the banking sector. We have entered a new era, not yet described in economics book: a kind of mild recession associated with almost full employment due to demographic reasons. This means that inflation and interest rates are going to stay high a longer period of time than anticipated by investors. For once internal momentum was fairly strong: 3267 stocks advanced compared to 669 that settled down. Options trading was cautious to neutral and we observed heavy buying pressure as measured by our buying/selling index and our capitulation index. Other measures of fear decreased like our fear/greed index, the SKEW index and the Vix.
Very short-term oscillator: negative
Short term oscillator: negative
RVI trend: negative
Trend short term (5 days): down
Trend mid term (8 days): down
Differential of trend: down
Risk profile: 70 (scale of 1 (low risk) to 100 (high risk))
Have a nice day!
OR