EMC Gestion de Fortune SA a développé, au fil des années, un modèle d’appréhension du risque sur le marché américain des actions baptisé : « Market pulse ». L’approche combine la finance comportementale, l’analyse des forces internes régissant l’offre et la demande, l’étude des cycles et des mouvements de prix. Ce modèle permet d’évaluer en permanence le risque global du marché sur une échelle de 0 à 100.
Thursday 10th September 2026 (S&P 500 7591.7 – 44,65)
Interest rates surged alongside oil prices, with the 10-year T-bond yield topping 4.95% and hitting the highest level since October 2023, a day before the release of an important inflation statistic. The S&P 500 broke the first support we mentioned in our previous comments at 7600 and its 40 days moving average. Precious metals tumbled in synchronicity. Breadth closed again on a very weak note: 751 stocks advanced, 2017 declined on the NYSE and more worrisome, the list of stocks hitting fresh new lows on the NYSE and on the Nasdaq is expanding at a frantic pace, meaning, in our opinion that the bulk of the stock market is entrenched in a bear market. In the meantime, the weekly survey among active professional portfolios managers is much too complacent as the index measuring the exposure towards the market closed at 90 from 103 two weeks ago. Additional selling pressure may well hit the market when hedge funds and systematic traders will realize they have to close their long positions and eventually go short the stock market.
Very short-term oscillator: negative
Short-term oscillator: negative
RVI trend: negative
Trend short-term (5 days): down
Trend mid-term (8 days): down
Differential of trend: down
Risk profile index: 47 (scale of 1 (low risk) to 100 (high risk))
Have a nice day!
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