EMC Gestion de Fortune SA a développé, au fil des années, un modèle d’appréhension du risque sur le marché américain des actions baptisé : « Market pulse ». L’approche combine la finance comportementale, l’analyse des forces internes régissant l’offre et la demande, l’étude des cycles et des mouvements de prix. Ce modèle permet d’évaluer en permanence le risque global du marché sur une échelle de 0 à 100.
Wednesday 10th December 2025 (S&P 500 6886,68 + 46,17)
The Fed delivered what the market was expecting, a quarter point cut of the Fed funds and a cautious outlook. Mr Powell considers now that the US monetary policy is neutral. One of the most interesting news delivered is the announcement that the Fed is going to start again US government debt purchases but concentrated on US T-bills which is a tool used to provide liquidity into the financial system that has recently given some stress signals.
The stock market reacted well to the news but the release of Oracle’s earnings after the closing of the stock market reminded investors that corporates results are going to be the main driver of the stock market over the months to come. Breadth closed on a strong note: 3208 stocks advanced, 1113 declined. The weekly survey among private investors didn’t provide much information as the bull to bear ratio didn’t change from one week to the other as the ratio settled at 1,45, indicating a strong confidence from this category of investors that the bull market will continue its run over the next few weeks.
Very short-term oscillator: neutral
Short-term oscillator: positive
RVI trend: positive
Trend short-term (5 days): up
Trend mid-term (8 days): up
Differential of trend: up
Risk profile: 68 (scale of 1 (low risk) to 100 (high risk))
Have a nice day!
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