EMC Gestion de Fortune SA a développé, au fil des années, un modèle d’appréhension du risque sur le marché américain des actions baptisé : « Market pulse ». L’approche combine la finance comportementale, l’analyse des forces internes régissant l’offre et la demande, l’étude des cycles et des mouvements de prix. Ce modèle permet d’évaluer en permanence le risque global du marché sur une échelle de 0 à 100.
Thursday 16th July 2026 (S&P 500 7533.77 -38,63)
The S&P 500 continues to trade in a very tight range as the indexes are resilient despite important volatilities among sectors and individual stocks. Seasonally, the stock market is rather strong until the end of the month of July before a surge of volatility in August and September. Breadth closed almost square: 2182 stocks advanced on the NYSE, 2314 declined. Options traders continue to be rather cautious as measured by put/call ratios. The weekly survey among active professional portfolios managers points out to a surge of optimism among this category of investors, the index measuring their exposure surged to 96 versus 83 (on a scale of 0 to 100) last week, a red flag in our opinion. Two components of our short-term trading model turned negative.
Very short-term oscillator: negative
Short-term oscillator: negative
RVI trend: positive
Trend short-term (5 days): up
Trend mid-term (8 days): up
Differential of trend: up
Risk profile index: 52 (scale of 1 (low risk) to 100 (high risk))
Have a nice day!
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