EMC Gestion de Fortune SA a développé, au fil des années, un modèle d’appréhension du risque sur le marché américain des actions baptisé : « Market pulse ». L’approche combine la finance comportementale, l’analyse des forces internes régissant l’offre et la demande, l’étude des cycles et des mouvements de prix. Ce modèle permet d’évaluer en permanence le risque global du marché sur une échelle de 0 à 100.
Tuesday 25th November 2025 (S&P 500 6765.88 + 60,76)
The stock market followed through its previous day up move and the S&P 500 closed again above its 40 days moving average whereas the Nasdaq closed just on it. Breadth closed on a strong note: 3474 stocks advanced on the NYSE, 862 declined. Surprisingly, options traders were rather cautious according to put/call ratios and this is rather encouraging as it seems that they don’t believe in a continuation of the recovery. Our short-term trading model has started to turn up, the Vix index slid to 18,6 from 26 last week and our daily trading sentiment index jumped to 74 on a scale of 0 to 100. A long week-end is ahead that may launch, according to the seasonality, a year-end rally. Economic statistics (budget deficit, credit cards loans and consumer confidence) paint a bleak picture of the US economy as the consumer is strained.
Very short-term oscillator: positive
Short-term oscillator: negative
RVI trend: positive
Trend short-term (5 days): up
Trend mid-term (8 days): up
Differential of trend: down
Risk profile: 50 (scale of 1 (low risk) to 100 (high risk))
Have a nice day!
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