EMC Gestion de Fortune SA a développé, au fil des années, un modèle d’appréhension du risque sur le marché américain des actions baptisé : « Market pulse ». L’approche combine la finance comportementale, l’analyse des forces internes régissant l’offre et la demande, l’étude des cycles et des mouvements de prix. Ce modèle permet d’évaluer en permanence le risque global du marché sur une échelle de 0 à 100.
Friday 28th August 2026 (S&P 500 7711.76 – 19,23)
We mentioned several times in our previous comments that financial conditions are deteriorating and that available liquidity to drive stocks higher is shrinking. This has been openly confirmed by the hawkish comments of Mr Warsh, the new President of the Fed, last Friday. Inflation is still not under control and the Fed may raise interest rates in the near future. Precious metals understood clearly the message and fell sharply.
Internal momentum in the stock market, as measured by the cumulative advance/decline lines on the Nasdaq and on the NYSE, has been weak recently. In the same vein, the list of stocks hitting fresh new 52 weeks highs has declined recently.
For the month of September (a seasonally weak month), the supports levels are 7400 and 7200 on the S&P 500.
Our short-term trading model has turned down.
Very short-term oscillator: negative
Short-term oscillator: negative
RVI trend: positive
Trend short-term (5 days): down
Trend mid-term (8 days): down
Differential of trend: up
Risk profile index: 60 (scale of 1 (low risk) to 100 (high risk))
Have a nice day!
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