EMC Gestion de Fortune SA a développé, au fil des années, un modèle d’appréhension du risque sur le marché américain des actions baptisé : « Market pulse ». L’approche combine la finance comportementale, l’analyse des forces internes régissant l’offre et la demande, l’étude des cycles et des mouvements de prix. Ce modèle permet d’évaluer en permanence le risque global du marché sur une échelle de 0 à 100.
Wednesday 30th July 2026 (S&P 500 7316.15 -112.63)
The market participants didn’t buy the statement delivered by the new Fed chairman Mr Kevin Warsh and sent the financial markets into a tailspin in a mark of defiance against what could be considered as a laxist monetary policy in the face of a resilient inflation. The 30 years T-bond jumped to 5,23 % as a result. This observation contributes to our concerns we mentioned several times in our daily comments that liquidity available for the stock market is drying up.
The S&P closed sharply lower and the objective we mentioned at 6800-7000 might be in sight during the summer. Breadth closed in the red:1363 stocks advanced on the NYSE, 3172 settled down. Options traders are cautious and are buying puts although put/call ratios haven’t reached an extreme yet. The weekly survey among private investors points out to a bull to bear ratio of 0,74, a better reading than the previous weeks but not a buy signal.
Very short-term oscillator: negative
Short-term oscillator: negative
RVI trend: negative
Trend short-term (5 days): down
Trend mid-term (8 days): down
Differential of trend: down
Risk profile index: 39 (scale of 1 (low risk) to 100 (high risk))
Have a nice day!
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