EMC Gestion de Fortune SA a développé, au fil des années, un modèle d’appréhension du risque sur le marché américain des actions baptisé : « Market pulse ». L’approche combine la finance comportementale, l’analyse des forces internes régissant l’offre et la demande, l’étude des cycles et des mouvements de prix. Ce modèle permet d’évaluer en permanence le risque global du marché sur une échelle de 0 à 100.
Monday 17th August 2025 (S&P 500 7745.06 -40.75)
30-year Treasury yield surpassed 5,31 %, the highest in 19 years, this should ring the bell to investors as excess liquidity is getting scarce to support lofty valuations in the stock market. Retail sales declined in July as the consumers is digging into its pocket in a context where inflation is burning its purchasing power. This is confirmed by a negative saving rate and a participatioin to the labor force that continues to schrink. Bad omen for the dynamic of the US economy.
A day of slight declines, 7600 and then 7000 may become supports as a correction/consolidation may unfold. Breadth settled negative as 1654 stocks advanced, 2862 declined. Options trading closed neutral, the SKEW index overbought at 143 and the closing Tick index at – 244.
Very short-term oscillator: positive
Short-term oscillator: positive
RVI trend: positive
Trend short-term (5 days): up
Trend mid-term (8 days): up
Differential of trend: up
Risk profile index: 64 (scale of 1 (low risk) to 100 (high risk))
Have a nice day!
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