EMC Gestion de Fortune SA a développé, au fil des années, un modèle d’appréhension du risque sur le marché américain des actions baptisé : « Market pulse ». L’approche combine la finance comportementale, l’analyse des forces internes régissant l’offre et la demande, l’étude des cycles et des mouvements de prix. Ce modèle permet d’évaluer en permanence le risque global du marché sur une échelle de 0 à 100.
Thursday 14th May 2025 (S&P 500 7501.24 + 56,99)
Over the last two trading days, the stock market continued to creep higher as money flowed into the market as measured by the closing Tick index (+504). Nevertheless, as mentioned in our previous comments, internal momentum is slowing down as measured by daily breadth: 2744 stocks advanced on the NYSE 1718 declined (previous day 2011 up, 2419 down). Options traders are playing the upside of the market as measured by put/call ratios that have deteriorated. The weekly survey among private investors didn’t point out to meaning changes from one week to the other and can be considered as neutral: 39% of the respondents are adopting a bullish view over the future course of the market, 37% are bearish and 24% neutral. The weekly survey among active professional portfolios managers points out to a slight decrease of the exposure that came back to 77 from 97 as this category of investors is slightly more cautious. In summary, the stock market is overbought by many measures and some kind of correction/consolidation would be more than welcome.
Very short-term oscillator: positive
Short-term oscillator: positive
RVI trend: positive
Trend short-term (5 days): up
Trend mid-term (8 days): up
Differential of trend: up
Risk profile index: 73 (scale of 1 (low risk) to 100 (high risk))
Have a nice day!
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