EMC Gestion de Fortune SA a développé, au fil des années, un modèle d’appréhension du risque sur le marché américain des actions baptisé : « Market pulse ». L’approche combine la finance comportementale, l’analyse des forces internes régissant l’offre et la demande, l’étude des cycles et des mouvements de prix. Ce modèle permet d’évaluer en permanence le risque global du marché sur une échelle de 0 à 100.
Monday 26th October 2026 (S&P 500 7676.77 + 53,09)
The stock market continues to whipsaw in a tight range, this time recovering up to its 40-day moving average without surpassing it. We observed some selling pressure as measured by our buying/selling index. Options traders have become lately more cautious as measured by put/call ratios. Breadth settled slightly positive: 2594 stocks advanced 1913 declined. Our risk appraisal model is mostly neutral whereas our short-term trading model is negative. Are we going to get a year end rally as seasonal factors are going to turn positive for the stock market? Much will depend on politics (mid-term elections), prices of energy, monetary conditions set up by the Fed and obviously corporates earnings momentum.
Very short-term oscillator: negative
Short-term oscillator: negative
RVI trend: negative
Trend short-term (5 days): down
Trend mid-term (8 days): down
Differential of trend: down
Risk profile index: 46 (scale of 1 (low risk) to 100 (high risk))
Have a nice day!
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