EMC Gestion de Fortune SA a développé, au fil des années, un modèle d’appréhension du risque sur le marché américain des actions baptisé : « Market pulse ». L’approche combine la finance comportementale, l’analyse des forces internes régissant l’offre et la demande, l’étude des cycles et des mouvements de prix. Ce modèle permet d’évaluer en permanence le risque global du marché sur une échelle de 0 à 100.
Friday 27th June 2025 (S&P 500 6173.07 + 32,05)
The stock market closed at the highest level of the year, helped by strong inflow of money as the 1st semester of 2025 is closing today. Investors that are underinvested are rushing to buy stocks, this is confirmed by a strong closing Tick index over the last two days. It is worth mentionning that the cumulative advance/decline line on the NYSE recovered recently and settled also at the highest level of the year, a good momentum confirmation. Daily breadth has been strong, especially last Thursday as 3427 stocks advanced on the NYSE, 727 declined. The financial markets are again on a “risk on” mode as the bond market, the Dow Jones Utilities index and the Dow Jones Transportation Index are trending North. The financial markets are clearly anticipating an easing of the US monetary policy as soon as September. The earnings season is soon going to kick on and may temper somehow the actual enthousiasm. A summer correction may bring the S&P 500 down to the 5800-6000 area where strong supports lie. Options trading has been supportive as options traders are bullish and buying calls but we haven’t noticed excess euphoria yet. The index measuring the exposure of active portfolios managers is back to 91 (on a scale of 0 to 100), indicating a very positive stance of this category of investors as hedge funds suffered a blow in April.
Very short-term oscillator: positive
Short-term oscillator: positive
RVI trend: positive
Trend short-term (5 days): up
Trend mid-term (8 days): up
Differential of trend: up
Risk profile: 63 (scale of 1 (low risk) to 100 (high risk))
Have a nice day!
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NEXT UPDATE: Thursday 17th July 2025