EMC Gestion de Fortune SA a développé, au fil des années, un modèle d’appréhension du risque sur le marché américain des actions baptisé : « Market pulse ». L’approche combine la finance comportementale, l’analyse des forces internes régissant l’offre et la demande, l’étude des cycles et des mouvements de prix. Ce modèle permet d’évaluer en permanence le risque global du marché sur une échelle de 0 à 100.
Thursday 18th December 2025 (S&P 500 6774.76 + 53.33)
Here we are, today more than Usd 7,1 trillion in notional options and futures are set to expire. This so called “quadruple witching day” where index and equities options, index futures and index futures options are going to expire should mark this year a record in notional values as reported by various sources.
Yesterday, indexes rebounded somehow after these last few days of selloff on AI related stocks. We observed some selling pressure on the NYSE as measured by our buying/selling pressure index as 2891 stocks advanced on the NYSE, 1549 declined. Options trading closed fairly neutral. The weekly survey among active professional portfolios managers surprised us as the index measuring the exposure of this category of market participants settled at 100 on a scale of 0 to 100. This extreme level of confidence is rather strange at this stage of the cycle.
Very short-term oscillator: negative
Short-term oscillator: negative
RVI trend: negative
Trend short-term (5 days): down
Trend mid-term (8 days): down
Differential of trend: down
Risk profile: 64 (scale of 1 (low risk) to 100 (high risk))
Have a nice day!
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NEXT UPDATE MONDAY 29TH DECEMBER 2025
MERRY CHRISTMAS TO OUR READERS !
